Social Network Working Papers
Job Market Paper Under Review
Ethnic politics scholars are increasingly convinced that (a) the political salience of ethnicity and (b) the correlation between ethno-linguistic fractionalization (ELF) and poor development are driven by the dense social networks shared by co-ethnics. By this argument, social networks allow ethnic parties to leverage inbuilt networks to share information and support collective action, while ethnically fragmented communities struggle to hold politicians accountable. This paper provides the first comprehensive empirical test of the assumption underlying this argument. Using seven months of telecommunications data from 9 million mobile subscribers in Zambia — which includes records of almost 2 billion calls and SMS messages — to measure social networks across an entire country, this paper finds that electoral constituencies with high ELF also have more fragmented social networks, especially in rural areas. It also finds that both voter knowledge and public goods are negatively correlated with network fragmentation, consistent with the network-proxy hypothesis.
with Guy Grossman, Melina Platas, and Jonathan Rodden. Under Review.
Citizens often mirror the political behavior of family, friends, co-workers and neighbors, but our understanding of the dynamics of peer influence is limited. For example, under what conditions does an individual’s decision to vote cascade through a community, producing high voter turnout? Despite substantial theoretical inroads into this question, direct empirical tests remain scarce due to data limitations. Using unique data on complete social networks of 15 villages in rural Uganda, this paper develops theoretical predictions about expected cross-village variation in turnout based on the network structure of each village, and demonstrates that these predictions are tightly linked with actual turnout in low-salience local elections with limited media attention, but not in high-salience presidential elections. These results provide the first direct empirical validation of “social context” theory, and introduce a finding of importance for future empirical network research: the salience of social networks may be conditional on the information environment.
Other Working Papers
Who is my Neighbor? The Spatial Efficiency of Partisanship
with Jonathan Rodden. Draft available upon request
Relative to its overall statewide support, the Republican Party has been over-represented in Congressional delegations and state legislatures over the last decade in a number of U.S. states. A challenge for courts is to determine the extent to which this can be explained by intentional gerrymandering vis-a-vis an underlying inefficient distribution of Democrats in cities. We explain the problem of “spatial inefficiency” in partisan support, and measure it by borrowing from the field of plant ecology, assessing the partisanship of the nearest neighbors of each voter in each U.S. state at the spatial scales relevant for Congressional delegations and both chambers of state legislatures. We demonstrate that as a result of urban-rural partisan polarization, much of the overall Republican advantage can be explained by the spatial inefficiency of partisanship. Moreover, this provides us with a useful baseline against which to evaluate claims of partisan gerrymandering. We demonstrate that when Republicans are often able to improve significantly on their underlying geographic advantage when they control the redistricting process, while Democrats are sometimes able to ameliorate it.
Decomposing the Government-Private School Performance Differential: Village Ethnic Politics and School Sorting
This paper leverages variation in sorting on academic potential caused by village caste politics to determine if private schools in rural Punjab, Pakistan out perform government schools because (a) private schools provide students with a better education, or (b) students attending private schools are more academically inclined in unobservable ways. It concludes that even the most sophisticated observational techniques — lagged Value-Added models — overstate private school quality by at least half.
The Political Methodologist, June 2016
A followup to Lessons from a Decade of Replications at the QJPS, this paper argues coding errors in published papers are not due to carelessness or inattention on behalf of authors, but rather the fact humans are effectively incapable of writing error-free code. It argues as a discipline we must start learning and teaching coding skills that help maximize the probability our mistakes will be found and corrected. It presents an overview of specific programming practices we can all implement, and offers reflections on the implications of this idea for third-party review of code by academic journals.
PS: Political Science and Politics, April 2016
Based on post for The Political Methodologist awarded Most Viewed Post of 2015
This paper details the experience and lessons learned at the Quarterly Journal of Political Science since it began requiring authors to provide this type of replication code in 2005. It finds 14 or 24 replication packages reviewed (58 percent) had results in the paper that differed from those generated by the author’s own code.
Journal of Development Studies, 2012
Winner of the Dudley Seers Prize for Best Article Published in JDS in 2012.
This paper presents evidence that negotiations between an autocratic government in need of tax revenues and citizens who were only willing to consent to taxation in exchange for greater government accountability shaped the formation of Somaliland’s democratic government.
World Development, 2012
This paper offers new measures of aid quality covering 38 bilateral and multilateral donors, as well as new insights about the robustness and usefulness of such measures.